Understanding Forecast and Planning Models

There is an immense amount of work that goes into planning inventory replenishment. Especially as most products are manufactured and need a variety of components to assemble a completed product. This is a course based left to your operations and productions managers and your planner for the basis of this course, we will look at how you can use vendor central to assist you in your forecasting to ensure that you are never out of stock.

While your planner will no doubt have their own models for predicting what stock will be needed for Amazon sales, you can assist them by sending them the models available from vendor centrals, Amazon retail analytics dashboard, located under the reports tab on the top menu, vendor central.

Your forecast and inventory planning model off of Amazon’s vendor central can greatly assist you in forecasting and planning your inventory to supply Amazon and thereby reduce the risk of being unable to supply Amazon with certain ASINs, especially if you are outsourcing your product and rely on it to be shipped by sea or air to your own warehouse from where you ship to Amazon or its customers.

To view this forecast and inventory planning model, click on the forecast and inventory planning link on the left side of the Amazon retail analytics dashboard. The audited units shows you what ASINs were ordered in the past, and can give you an overview of a trend when compiled over several months to a year.

For example, you may find that the red version of one of your products. Tends to sell better over the first of season, whereas throughout the rest of the year, it doesn’t seem to do well at all. You can then know to build in a seasonality percentage into your forecasting and planning model for that ASIN.

The mean forecast is Amazon’s best estimate of customer demand for each particular ASIN. And is probably the forecast you would most likely use in your own forecasting model, especially if you are using Amazon’s forecasting report for the first time, the P 70 forecast. Is Amazon’s estimate of a 70% probability that the customer demand will be at or below this value.

This is an important option to look at as it’ll most likely apply more strongly to your slow moving asims in your planning and forecasting model.

The P 80 forecast is Amazon’s estimate of an 80% probability that the customer demand will be at or below this value. This is an important option to look at as it will most likely apply more strongly to your consistently moving ASINs in your planning and forecasting model that rarely tend to dip or spike at all.

The P 90 forecast is Amazon’s estimate of a 90% probability that the customer demand will be at or below this value. This is an important option to look at as it’ll most likely apply more strongly to your fast moving ASINs in your planning and forecasting model that are most sought after by customers.

Whichever one of these forecast models you choose. You can download the details in an Excel workbook by clicking on the download button in the top right side of the page and selecting which file you would like to download the forecasting model that Amazon provides can offer you an in-depth look at each one of your ASINs as they perform on Amazon.

And can provide you with vital Intel as to how consumers engage with your brand overall, as well as each individual ASIN, thus assisting you to better plan your imagery, holding for Amazon sales specifically and greater alleviate shortages or unfulfilled units to Amazon’s fulfillment centers.